Is Ethiopia Collapsing? Implications for Israel and the Region from the Tigray War

תקציר

A bloody civil war has waged for the past year in the Tigray region of Ethiopia between the Ethiopian federal army and its allies and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The significant operational achievements by the rebel forces in recent months have raised doubts regarding the federal government’s ability to impose its authority over the country and rebuff other separatist threats, and may even threaten its political survival. Meanwhile, the instability and violence are spilling over beyond the local combat zone, involving additional states and threatening a volatile area. On the political level, the conflict has distanced Ethiopia from Washington, which aims to impose sanctions on Ethiopia, and brought it closer to Moscow, Beijing, Ankara, and perhaps even Tehran. Israel and the Gulf states are thus in a dilemma regarding how to relate to the events in Ethiopia, especially given their longstanding close relations with Addis Ababa. This article surveys the geopolitical implications of the developments in Ethiopia, analyzes the considerations of the various actors, and offers strategic recommendations for Israel.